BANKRUPTCY RISK OF LISTED ENTERPRISES IN VIETNAM: FINANCIAL DETERMINANTS AND SUSTAINABLE RESILIENCE

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of bankruptcy risk among enterprises listed on the Vietnamese stock market, with particular attention to financial resilience and sustainability in the context of global economic transformation. Using data from twenty-eight publicly listed companies between 2010 and 2025, the study applies the Z score model to evaluate how leverage, profitability, and liquidity influence corporate insolvency risk. Several econometric techniques were employed, including pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and generalized least squares, with diagnostic tests confirming the fixed effects model as most suitable and GLS providing robust adjustments for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The findings reveal that profitability (ROA) significantly reduces bankruptcy risk, while volatility in equity returns (ROE) increases vulnerability; liquidity indicators show mixed effects, with working capital to total assets enhancing resilience, whereas current ratio and current liabilities to current assets present nuanced relationships. Equity financing mitigates risk, fixed asset intensity may strengthen resilience under GLS, and GDP growth exerts a stabilizing macroeconomic influence. These results suggest that managers should prioritize profitability and efficient liquidity management, policymakers should foster macroeconomic stability, and investors should monitor profitability and capital structure as early warning signals of distress. By integrating firm level financial indicators with macroeconomic conditions into a robust GLS forecasting framework, this study contributes to the literature on bankruptcy prediction in emerging markets and offers practical insights for corporate governance and policy design.