A Simulation-Based Decision Support System for the Development of Kazakhstan’s Multimodal Transport Logistics
Abstract
Background: The development of international transport corridors and growing freight flows require decision-support tools that jointly consider transport infrastructure, economic performance, and risks. This study develops a simulation-based decision-support system for strategic development of multimodal transport logistics in Kazakhstan. Methods: The system is based on an agent-based model representing producers, consumers, logistics centers, border checkpoints, container terminals, transport hubs, road and rail vehicles, and freight orders. AnyLogic simulation, geospatial transport-network data, optimization mechanisms, economic assessment, and risk-oriented indicators are integrated within a unified environment. Results: The model enables assessment of freight flows, transportation costs, infrastructure performance, profitability, integrated risk, and system resilience. Scenario experiments representing border modernization, rail corridor development, multimodal hub expansion, digital logistics, and integrated modernization demonstrate how infrastructure and operational changes affect transport, economic, and risk-related indicators. The integrated framework supports identification of bottlenecks and comparison of alternative development strategies under common model assumptions. Conclusions: The proposed system provides a unified simulation environment for scenario-based evaluation of Kazakhstan’s multimodal transport logistics development. It supports comparative assessment of infrastructure and operational interventions and provides quantitative information for strategic transport planning.