System Dynamics Modeling of Disaster Distribution Infrastructure Resilience: A Feedback Analysis of Last-Mile Humanitarian Logistics in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia’s geography makes it highly vulnerable to natural disasters, posing major challenges for humanitarian logistics, especially last-mile delivery. Disaster aid is often hampered by damaged transportation, poor access to remote areas, and weak information coordination. While previous research has examined humanitarian logistics, few studies have explored the dynamic interactions that shape the resilience of last-mile distribution in Indonesia. This study addresses that gap by analyzing infrastructure resilience using a qualitative system dynamics approach. A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) was built from a literature review and analysis of disaster logistics in the country. This model captures how physical infrastructure, information systems, coordination, and operational pressure interact. The findings reveal key feedback loops that drive system resilience and performance. Transportation capacity, accessibility, and information quality are the main factors. Reinforcing loops tend to increase pressure and delays, while balancing loops improve coordination and stability. The study highlights the need to integrate infrastructure, information visibility, and coordination for stronger, more sustainable humanitarian logistics. It contributes to the field by offering a system dynamics view of feedback-driven resilience.