VAT, Exchange Rate, and Non-Oil Imports: The Moderating Role of GDP

Abstract

Indonesia’s non-oil and gas imports are influenced by fiscal and macroeconomic conditions, including Value Added Tax (VAT) policy and exchange rate movements. However, prior studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding their effects on import activity. This study examines the effects of the VAT rate and the Rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia’s non-oil and gas import value, as well as the moderating role of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is included as a moderating variable because changes in domestic economic activity may alter import demand and may strengthen or weaken the effects of VAT and exchange rate movements. This study employs a quantitative explanatory approach using quarterly secondary data from the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2025, consisting of 40 observations. Data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Finance. The analysis uses Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with an AR(1) specification to address serial correlation. The results show that the VAT rate and the Rupiah exchange rate do not significantly affect Indonesia’s non-oil and gas import value. GDP also does not significantly moderate the effects of either variable on non-oil and gas imports. These findings differ from several prior studies that report significant effects of tax policy and exchange rates on imports. This study provides empirical evidence regarding the role of GDP as a moderating variable in Indonesia’s non-oil and gas import dynamics.