Renewable Energy Transitions in Nigeria: Pathways to a LowCarbon Future Amidst Fossil-Fuel Dependence

Abstract

Nigeria is at a pivotal juncture: although revenues from oil and gas have long sustained the economy, the country continues to face chronic electricity shortages, heavy reliance on diesel generators, and the socioeconomic burdens of unreliable power supply. Recent policy and market signals including the Energy Transition Plan (ETP), revised NDC commitments, and growing investor interest in distributed renewable energy (DRE) create a strategic opening to accelerate renewable energy deployment, expand electricity access, cut emissions, and build resilient local economies. This study integrates technical, economic, institutional, and social perspectives to chart prioritized pathways for Nigeria’s low-carbon transition. Using evidence from academic research, national policy frameworks and international assessments we assess the structure and constraints of the current energy system, examine renewable resource potential and deployment options at utility and decentralized scales, investigate financing and institutional challenges and provide targeted policy and implementation strategies. The analysis highlights that Nigeria’s renewable energy resources solar, hydro, biomass, and localized wind remain underexploited due to persistent grid fragility, financial shortfalls, and policy enforcement gaps. Decentralized systems such as solar home units, mini-grids, and hybrid solutions represent the most cost-effective path to electrification and reduced diesel reliance. Achieving scale requires consistent policy implementation, tariff reform, blended financing, and skills development, while ensuring social protections and a just transition for fossil fuel dependent regions.We close with a roadmap and research agenda to align climate objectives, investment flows, and equity considerations in Nigeria’s energy future