Adaptive leadership enactment under structured uncertainty: evidence from a narrative simulation of team sensemaking

Abstract

This study aims to examine how adaptive leadership is collectively enacted when teams operate under structured uncertainty, focusing on the interactional processes connecting interpretation, coordination and action. A qualitative, process-oriented study examined 24 graduate public administration students working in six teams within a narrative simulation characterised by incomplete information, shifting constraints and consequential decisions. Analysis integrated recorded interactions, reflections, focus groups, team materials and observational records. Four interrelated patterns emerged: dynamic collective sensemaking, negotiated role fluidity, emotionally regulated collaboration and calibrated decision-making under constraint. These processes operated recursively as teams interpreted changing conditions, redistributed influence, managed interpersonal tension and made provisional commitments. The single-institution simulation and dual instructor-researcher role limit transferability. Research should examine these relationships across organisational and public sector contexts. Leadership development can cultivate adaptive capacity through uncertainty-rich team experiences emphasising collective interpretation, fluid influence, constructive disagreement and provisional decision-making. The findings have implications for public sector leadership development and crisis governance, where teams must coordinate collective action under uncertainty. The study explains adaptive leadership enactment as a recursive relationship among interpretation, relational coordination and action rather than as discrete leadership behaviours. The study conceptualises structured uncertainty as a bounded contextual condition rather than a distinct form of uncertainty and shows how established leadership processes become interdependent during collective adaptation.