Early Prediction of AI-Assisted Cheating Risk in Online Exams Through Learning Analytics

Abstract

AI-assisted cheating has become an important threat to the security of online exams. This study examines whether the risk of AI-assisted cheating in the final exam can be predicted using students' digital traces in the learning management system (LMS) during the first eight weeks of the semester. The sample comprised 52 first-year undergraduates enrolled in a bachelor's program in Computer Education and Instructional Technology and taking an Introduction to Programming course at a public university in Turkiye. Students were labeled as low- or high-risk based on suspicious behaviors recorded in the final-exam logs, including copy, focus-loss, and right-click events. Of the 52 students, 23 (44.2%) were labeled as high-risk in a proctored, face-to-face exam. Group membership was then predicted using five features selected from 27 candidates extracted from students' digital traces. Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting algorithms were used to build the prediction models. Model performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) with fold-specific preprocessing and feature selection. Logistic Regression achieved the best performance (Accuracy = 73.1%). The results indicate that LMS interaction data can provide an early signal of AI-assisted cheating risk. Course-module views, assignment submissions, and the number of days on which course videos were accessed were the most consistently selected features across the LOOCV folds. These predictions are intended to support timely academic guidance, not to establish misconduct or initiate disciplinary action.