Approaches to forecast soil nutrient dynamics for precision agriculture and sustainable fertiliser management: A review

Abstract

Predictive modelling of soil nutrient dynamics is an essential tool for promoting sustainable agricultural practices and environmentally responsible farming methods. The statistical and machine learning techniques used to forecast the availability and dynamics of soil nutrients are summarised in this review. The core frameworks for measuring spatio-temporal nutritional variability are established by traditional statistical approaches such as time-series models autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), multivariate techniques (Principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis) and geostatistical tools (kriging). By capturing intricate nonlinear interactions within heterogeneous agroecosystems, machine learning techniques like random forest, support vector machines and ensemble approaches (XGBoost, LightGBM and AdaBoost) provide higher prediction accuracy. Forecasting capabilities are further enhanced by hybrid frameworks [Autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables–artificial neural network. (ARIMAX-ANN)] and deep learning architectures (Convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), ANN). With R2 values above 0.93 and notable decreases in prediction errors, ensemble approaches routinely perform better than traditional linear models. Nevertheless, persistent challenges include data quality limitations, spatial sampling constraints, insufficient environmental covariates and reduced model transferability across diverse pedoclimatic regions. Integrating high-resolution soil properties, climatic variables, terrain attributes and spectral information with advanced modelling architectures remains crucial for enhancing predictive reliability, ultimately supporting precision nutrient management, improved fertiliser efficiency and environmentally responsible agricultural systems.