IMPACT OF TOLL ROAD ENTRY POINTS ON THE GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GRDP) OF REGENCIES AND CITIES IN JAVA ISLAND
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the impact of toll road access on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of regencies/municipalities in Java in 2024 by employing the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to address selection bias. Transportation infrastructure development, particularly toll roads, constitutes a strategic instrument in promoting regional economic development in Indonesia, especially in reducing relatively high logistics costs. This study uses secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), covering a total of 119 observations. The variables include GRDP at constant prices in 2024 as the dependent variable, as well as population density and industrial share in 2015 as control variables. The analysis is conducted through propensity score estimation using a probit model, a matching process, and impact evaluation using the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). The results indicate that population density and industrial structure have a positive and significant effect on the probability of a region having toll road access. The PSM estimation shows that toll road development has a positive and significant impact on increasing GRDP. The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) value of 0.4982 indicates that, on average, toll road development increases GRDP by 49.82% across all regions. Meanwhile, the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) value of 0.6990 indicates that regions with toll road access experience a higher increase in GRDP, reaching 69.90%. The difference between ATT and ATE suggests that the impact of toll road development is more optimal in regions with stronger structural readiness, such as high population density and a strong industrial base. Therefore, toll road development is proven to be effective in driving regional economic growth, but it also has the potential to widen interregional inequality if not accompanied by more equitable development policies.