SDGs 7 and 13 in Practice: Energy‐Related Uncertainty, ESG Uncertainty, Trade Policy, and Renewable Energy Consumption in an Advanced Nation

Abstract

Rising volatility in energy markets, shifts in ESG expectations, and uncertainty around trade policy can disrupt investment signals and slow progress toward clean energy. In line with SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), this study examines how energy‐related uncertainty, ESG uncertainty, and trade policy uncertainty shape renewable energy consumption in the United States. Using monthly data from 2000 M1 to 2024 M12, the analysis applies quantile‐based and time‐frequency econometric techniques, namely Quantile‐on‐Quantile Kernel Regularized Least Squares (QQKRLS), Wavelet Quantile Regression (WQR), and Quantile‐on‐Quantile Granger Causality (QQGC), to capture distributional heterogeneity and time‐varying dynamics. The results show clear quantile‐dependent and horizon‐specific effects. Trade policy uncertainty is associated with short‐run increases in renewable energy consumption but longer‐run declines, with the strongest effects concentrated around the middle of the distribution. Energy‐related uncertainty and geopolitical tension reduce renewable energy consumption in the medium term, yet the relationship turns positive over longer horizons, suggesting adaptation and policy or market responses over time. ESG uncertainty displays a limited short‐run relationship but becomes more consistently negative in the medium term. Overall, the evidence indicates that uncertainty can generate temporary accelerations in renewable uptake, but persistent or poorly managed uncertainty undermines longer‐term progress. Policy implications for SDGs 7 and 13 are direct: governments should anchor the energy transition with credible, durable policy commitments, reduce avoidable policy volatility, and deploy targeted measures that convert short‐lived uncertainty shocks into sustained clean energy investment and consumption.