Global warming-driven soil desiccation and hydrological decline in Namangan foothills, Uzbekistan

Abstract

The foothills of Central Asia are climate-sensitive transition zones where persistent warming is driving a “warming–drying paradox”—water resources decline even as rainfall holds steady because evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. This study assessed long-term hydroclimatic change in the Namangan foothills of eastern Uzbekistan as an indicator of climate-induced aridification by integrating meteorological records (1881–2022), river runoff data (1951–2021), and Landsat-derived soil moisture maps (1990–2023). The results showed a clear warming trend alongside only a slight rise in precipitation. Between 1990 and 2023, the area of dry soils increased nearly eightfold, while river runoff fell by more than 50% after 1951. Rising temperatures intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture, and weaken the hydrological regime. Mid-mountain foothills act as early indicators of hydrothermal change under continental warming, underlining the need for adaptation focused on evaporation control, soil moisture conservation, and catchment-scale water management.