Dynamics modelling and control strategies of malaria transmission interruption by antimalarial-treated nets

Abstract

Malaria is one of the most burdensome vector-borne diseases in tropical and subtropical regions. Probst and Catteruccia, (Nature, 2025) proposed a novel strategy using antimalarial-treated nets (ATNs). These nets provide a physical barrier against mosquito bites while simultaneously delivering antimalarial drugs to mosquitoes, inhibiting parasite development within them. In this paper, we incorporate the ATN mechanism into a malaria transmission model. To capture the pharmacokinetics of antimalarial drugs and their inhibitory effects on Plasmodium development, we divide mosquitoes into five categories. The basic reproduction number R0 is derived using the next-generation matrix method. We prove that the disease-free equilibrium always exists: it is locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1, and unstable otherwise. Then, a threshold value R0∗ is obtained. If R0<R0∗, there exists no endemic equilibrium. When R0∗<R0<1, there may exist two endemic equilibria. The low-prevalence endemic equilibrium disappears at R0 = 1, while the high-prevalence one persists for R0 > 1. Through numerical simulations, we find that R0 and infection prevalence can be significantly decreased by increasing ATN coverage, raising mosquito mortality, enhancing antimalarial drug efficacy, and reducing biting rates. In particular, when the drug is completely ineffective, even 100% net coverage fails to bring R0 below one, highlighting the essential role of the chemical effect of antimalarial drugs. This study provides a theoretical basis and quantitative reference for optimizing ATN deployment and malaria control.