It is argued that structure prediction should be reformulated as a state-space inference problem: recovering not one conformation's coordinates but accessible states, their energetic and kinetic relationships, context dependence, and responses to perturbations.
Abstract
Recent AI advances have enabled protein structure prediction at near-experimental accuracy, largely solving the problem of identifying a dominant conformation from sequence. Many proteins, however, function as dynamic systems populating multiple conformational states with activity emerging from shifts in relative occupancy--an incomplete picture when reduced to one structure. Here, we argue that structure prediction should be reformulated as a state-space inference problem: recovering not one conformation's coordinates but accessible states, their energetic and kinetic relationships, context dependence, and responses to perturbations. We review emerging strategies--deep learning ensemble generators, physics-based simulations, and experimental constraints--and outline a roadmap toward state-space prediction.
This framework provides a clearer understanding of how methodological shifts have shaped the capabilities, limitations, and practical roles of recent models.
Wengan He, Yongsheng Luo, Lihong Jiang et al.· 0 citations
Recent advances in protein structure prediction, exemplified by AlphaFold, have largely addressed the determination of static structures, one aspect of the protein folding problem. However, predicting folding pathways, by which proteins reach their native states, remains a significant challenge. Here, we present PathFold, a deep learning framework that predicts protein folding pathways directly from sequence information. PathFold leverages an AlphaFold-based module to extract structural information from the sequence and generates a progressive folding trajectory from an extended conformation using a diffusion model. By modeling the full trajectory, it enables prediction of folding intermediates and transition pathways, analogous to those observed in steered molecular dynamics (SMD) simulations. The predicted pathways reveal well-defined intermediates and sequential folding events, and show agreement with experimental folding data, including measured Φ-values.
Pi-Ensemble (Predicting Interpolated Ensemble), a sequence-guided framework for generating protein conformational ensembles interpolating between two structural anchor states, provides an extensible framework for studying protein flexibility, guiding adaptive sampling, and accelerating mechanistic investigations of protein function.
Hassan Nadeem, D. Kleiman, Yu-Ming Zhou et al.· bioRxiv· 0 citations
It is concluded that molecular dynamics has an important place in improving the physicality of existing protein structure prediction paradigms, leading to the development of the Subspace Relaxation Operator (SRO).
Colin Baker, Pranav Mahableshwarkar, Ritambhara Singh et al.· 0 citations
Protein structure predictors achieve high single-state accuracy, but it remains unclear whether they can recover functionally relevant conformational ensembles or account for the presence of ligands and/or binding partners. Here, we benchmark AlphaFold3, Boltz-2, Chai-1, and BioEmu on four canonical multi-state proteins (Pf-MATE, LAO, SecA, and β2AR), quantifying state bias and sampling breadth against experimental reference structures. Models frequently default to a dominant state represented in the PDB; small-molecule ligands have weak or inconsistent effects, while large protein partners drive clear conformational switching between states. Multiple sequence alignment (MSA)-based approaches (AF-Cluster and random subsampling) recapitulate similar biases, indicating that this behavior is not unique to newer architectures. These results underscore current limitations for multi-state protein structure prediction and structure-guided ligand discovery. TOC Graphic
Muhui Ye, Yu-Hong Wang, M. Brogi et al.· bioRxiv· 0 citations
Addressing and predicting ligand-binding sites in protein structures, as well as the prediction of reliable structures of proteins interacting with other proteins, will be pivotal for fully details of structural mechanisms and dynamics.
Pradeep Bk, Shi-Jie Chen, R. Dima et al.· Journal of Molecular Biology· 1 citation
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