Ai Based Smart Crop Recommendation and Yield Prediction Using Ml and Weather Analytics

Abstract

Agriculture plays a vital role in ensuring global food security; however, unpredictable climatic conditions, changing soil characteristics, and inefficient crop selection continue to affect agricultural productivity. Accurate crop recommendation and yield prediction are essential for supporting farmers in making informed cultivation decisions and maximizing crop production. This paper proposes an AI-Based Smart Crop Recommendation and Yield Prediction Framework that integrates machine learning techniques with weather analytics to provide intelligent decision support for precision agriculture. The proposed framework utilizes multiple environmental and agricultural parameters, including soil nutrients (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Potassium), soil pH, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and historical weather information, to recommend the most suitable crop and estimate its expected yield. A comprehensive data preprocessing pipeline involving missing value treatment, feature engineering, normalization, and feature selection is employed to improve model performance. Multiple machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Support Vector Machine, are evaluated, and an ensemble learning approach is adopted to enhance prediction accuracy and model robustness. Weather analytics are incorporated to capture seasonal variations and climatic influences that significantly impact crop productivity. The proposed framework is validated using publicly available agricultural datasets and evaluated through cross-validation using standard performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The experimental results are expected to demonstrate that integrating weather analytics with ensemble machine learning significantly improves both crop recommendation accuracy and yield prediction performance compared with conventional single-model approaches. The proposed framework provides an intelligent, scalable, and data-driven decision support system that can assist farmers, agricultural experts, and policymakers in improving productivity, optimizing resource utilization, and promoting sustainable farming practices under varying climatic conditions.