Exploring the Effects of Climate Variability on Diarrheal Diseases, Malaria, and Malnutrition in Children Under Five Years in Revuè Sub-Basin, Manica Province, Mozambique

Abstract

Transmission of water, vector, and foodborne diseases tends to increase with climate variability, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. Globally, this dynamic contributes to adverse health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries such as Mozambique. Nevertheless, the influence of climate variability on disease patterns remains unclear. We assessed the potential relationship between climate variables and diseases, including diarrheal diseases, malaria, and malnutrition, in four districts around the Revuè sub-basin. An ecological, longitudinal, retrospective study conducted from 2016 to 2024 used secondary weekly disease data and annual malnutrition records. We applied a Generalized Additive Model framework to evaluate non-linear associations between climate factors and disease case counts. Our main findings showed that while higher maximum temperature was associated with increased cumulative malaria case counts, cumulative and heavy rainfall (~100 mm/week) was associated with decreased diarrheal disease case counts. Higher prevalence of moderate acute malnutrition is associated with a decrease in annual mean total precipitation (p = 0.0062). In contrast, higher prevalence of severe acute malnutrition is associated with a decrease in annual mean temperature (p = 0.0312). This study contributes to understanding climate variables associated with water, vector, and foodborne diseases, enhancing our understanding of factors contributing to overall food insecurity and affecting public health.