Logical Models of Informational Cascades

Logical Models of Informational Cascades

It is concluded that cascades are not only likely to occur but are sometimes unavoidable by “rational” means: in some situations, the group’s inability to track the truth is the direct consequence of each agent’s rational attempt at individual truth-tracking.

Logical Models of Informational Cascades

Evidence Diffusion in Social Networks: a Topological Perspective

Epistemic Networks, Collective Misperception, and the Manipulation of Social Knowledge

We investigate the structure of interactive beliefs in networks: the epistemic state in which agents hold, revise, and act on their models of the epistemic states of other agents. What a group believes depends on what each member agent takes the others to believe, and on what each takes the others to believe about stil...

Predicting the scale limits of social mechanisms in agent societies

An audit is introduced that predicts a mechanism's fate as a population grows, asking how often the mechanism can act, whether agents use the information it supplies, and whether the measurement itself creates apparent scale effects.

A Unifying Perspective on Probabilities as Model Predictions

Although probabilistic statements are ubiquitous, foundational disagreements persist about their understanding, as exemplified by debates between Bayesians and frequentists; moreover, it is unclear when and why acting on them actually leads to desirable outcomes. Here, we argue that every probability is the output of a...