Spatial Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility for Sustainable Land-Use Planning in the Foothill Zones of the Almaty Agglomeration (Southeastern Kazakhstan) Using the Frequency Ratio Method and GIS

Abstract

The active development of the foothill areas of the Almaty agglomeration (Southeastern Kazakhstan) requires reliable methods for landslide susceptibility assessment. This study aims to identify the spatial association between landslide occurrence and selected environmental and anthropogenic factors using the Frequency Ratio (FR) method and geographic information systems. The analysis is based on an inventory of 157 landslides, the SRTM digital elevation model, Landsat imagery, WorldClim climate data, geological maps, and OpenStreetMap data. Ten conditioning factors were analyzed: elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, lithology, distance to faults, rivers and roads, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use. FR values were calculated for each factor and integrated to produce a landslide susceptibility map. Model performance was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). The resulting susceptibility map identifies areas with different levels of landslide susceptibility and provides a scientific basis for sustainable land-use planning, engineering-geological investigations, safer infrastructure development, natural hazard assessment, and disaster risk reduction in rapidly developing foothill regions. By supporting risk-informed land-use decisions and targeted mitigation measures, the study contributes to the long-term environmental safety and resilience of the Almaty agglomeration.