Spatiotemporal trends in pancreatic cancer incidence from 2013 to 2023 in Gansu Province, Northwest China: A regional study

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant neoplasm with a rising incidence, yet long-term provincial trends in China remain unclear.

Aim

To comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of, and trends in, PC incidence in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2023.

Methods

Data on PC cases were gathered from 262 hospitals in Gansu Province, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) stratified by county, gender, and climate. Moran’s I was employed for spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect clustering patterns in PC incidence. SatScan was utilized to detect spatiotemporal clusters of PC, using a Poisson model as a basis. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate temporal trends and determine the average annual percent change. Socioeconomic and healthcare indicators were examined using spatial regression analysis.

Results

In 2013-2023, PC incidence in Gansu Province rose from 590 to 1017 cases, with the ASIR increasing from 2.39 per 100000 people to 3.23 per 100000 people. The ASIR was higher in males compared to females, and higher in the elderly than in the young people. Global spatial clustering highlighted hotspots in the Hexi region, and a high-risk region and two low-risk regions were identified. The provincial incidence exhibited an increasing trend. The ASIR of PC in Tianshui, Zhangye, Qingyang, Dingxi, and Linxia showed a continuous upward trend. The incidence of PC in the Monsoon climate of medium latitudes (Dwb climate zone) was high and rising. Area-level analyses suggested that socioeconomic development may partially contribute to spatial heterogeneity.

Conclusion

PC incidence increased in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2023, especially in the Hexi region and arid-cold areas, highlighting priority counties for targeted prevention, earlier diagnosis, and resource allocation.