Mitochondria related gene signature serves as prognosis prediction and risk stratification of cholangiocarcinoma

Abstract

Background Cholangiocarcinoma (CHOL) is a highly aggressive biliary malignancy with poor clinical outcomes and limited effective prognostic biomarkers. Mitochondrial dysfunction participates in multiple oncological processes of CHOL, yet the prognostic roles of mitochondria‑related genes (MRGs) remain poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize MRGs expression in CHOL and develop a molecular prognostic model for predicting patient survival and guiding clinical management. Methods RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and clinical data of CHOL were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) (GSE89748) databases. Differentially expressed MRGs were identified, and 10 machine learning algorithms were used to construct prognostic models. The optimal model (highest average C-index) was selected to establish a mitochondria-related risk score (MRRS), which was validated internally and externally. A nomogram integrating clinical factors and MRRS was developed, and biological mechanisms were explored via functional and immune analyses. Results A 3-MRG (MAP3K1, MRPL18, PYGB) prognostic signature was constructed, stratifying patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival. The model showed high predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) up to 0.845, and MRRS was an independent prognostic factor. The signature was associated with mitochondrial pathways, and the high-risk group had distinct immune infiltration and mutation profiles. Conclusions A validated MRG prognostic model effectively stratifies CHOL patients and has potential clinical value for prognosis prediction. Further validation in larger cohorts is needed to confirm its applicability.