Reliability-Centered Assessment of Misreporting-Related Accident Risks in Turkish Straits Passages

Abstract

Ship traffic through the Turkish Straits occurs in a highly constrained navigational environment, where inaccurate prepassage reports can significantly increase the risk of maritime accidents. Vessels are required to submit Sailing Plan declarations (SP-1 and SP-2) before entry, but these reports often fail to reflect the actual technical and operational condition of the ships. Commercial pressure, time constraints, and intentional misreporting can create discrepancies between declared and actual readiness, raising the likelihood of collisions, groundings, or loss of maneuverability in congested waters. This study develops a reliability-centered framework to assess accident risks associated with reporting, contributing to the literature on human reliability and uncertainty management in maritime traffic. Risk criteria were identified by reviewing regulatory requirements, accident records, and relevant literature, and refined through expert input from Vessel Traffic Services (VTS), pilotage, Port State Control (PSC), and ship operations. The framework combines the Fine–Kinney method with an Intuitionistic Fuzzy TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and multicriteria decision-making). The results indicate that undisclosed propulsion deficiencies, steering problems, and nontransparent withdrawal from passage queues are the most critical accident precursors. These findings highlight the importance of reliable reporting and provide practical and transferable guidance for reducing the risks of maritime accidents and improving risk management for vessel traffic. In particular, the results support the prioritization of propulsion and steering system checks, as well as the closer scrutiny of vessels withdrawing from passage queues, offering actionable insights for VTS operators, PSC authorities and marine pilots.