Urban efficiency and rural redundancy: global transportation infrastructure resource demand from 2010–2070

Abstract

Transportation infrastructure stocks are a large share of global material stock, comprising around 30%–50% of global material stock. As emerging economies expand and developed nations have growing maintenance needs, increasing material demand presents a critical barrier to decarbonising the built environment. Using a stock-driven material flow analysis model based on infrastructure stock data from 8872 urban areas and rural regions, under an SSP2 scenario for transport demand, we identify a population shift toward urban areas leading to increased resource requirements in urban areas, and an increase of total infrastructure stocks to 494 Gt between 2024 and 2070. While urban areas demonstrate a density advantage, depopulating rural areas face an increasing material inefficiency. Material demand related to transport infrastructure expansion is concentrated in the Global South, whereas Global North materials are mainly used for maintenance and increasing stocks of underutilised assets in rural areas. A spatial challenge exists of providing the resources in the right place.