An MT-Transformer Framework for Coordinated Wind-Solar-Load Forecasting with Net-Load-Based Coal-Power Regulation Demand Identification

Abstract

Data-driven forecasting has become increasingly important for describing the temporal interactions among heterogeneous variables in modern power systems. To capture the nonlinear coupling, heterogeneous fluctuations, and multi-scale temporal variations between renewable generation and load demand, this study develops an MT-Transformer framework for coordinated wind–solar–load forecasting. Meteorological variables, historical renewable output, historical load, and temporal labels are integrated as model inputs. A shared Transformer encoder is used to learn common temporal representations, and task-specific forecasting heads are designed to generate synchronized predictions for wind power, PV power, and load. The experimental results show that MT-Transformer achieves an MAE of 0.0848, an RMSE of 0.1254, and an R² of 0.9302. Compared with the Persistence Model, the MAE and RMSE decrease by 36.05% and 30.49%, respectively. The predicted outputs are further converted into a net-load sequence, from which fluctuation indicators are derived. The peak–valley difference reaches 0.462 p.u., and the maximum ramp rate reaches 0.087 p.u./h, indicating evident peak-shaving pressure and short-term regulation demand. These findings confirm that the proposed framework improves coordinated forecasting performance and provides quantitative evidence for coal-power peak regulation, reserve capacity allocation, and ancillary service demand identification.