Labour Market Implications of Generative AI in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Türkiye
TL;DR
Employment effects are strongly age-asymmetric: since 2023, job growth has weakened mainly for early-career workers in highly exposed occupations, while no comparable losses are observed for workers over thirty, suggesting that generative AI operates primarily through hiring margins, displacing inexperienced workers while complementing experienced ones.
Abstract
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly viewed as a general-purpose technology with far-reaching labour-market implications. While existing evidence is largely drawn from advanced economies, much less is known about the impact of generative AI on employment in emerging economies. This article examines the labour-market impact of generative AI in Türkiye using individual-level administrative records from the Social Security Institution combined with occupation-level exposure measures from the International Labour Organisation. We find that the share of AI-exposed employment within the top 20% of the exposure distribution (fifth quintile) amounts to 17% of total employment. About 2.3 million registered jobs in Türkiye are highly exposed to generative AI. Employment effects are strongly age-asymmetric: since 2023, job growth has weakened mainly for early-career workers in highly exposed occupations, while no comparable losses are observed for workers over thirty. These patterns survive controls for sectoral reallocation, suggesting that generative AI operates primarily through hiring margins, displacing inexperienced workers while complementing experienced ones.