Dark Forest arguments commonly reduce interstellar strategy to a bilateral encounter between two persistent civilisations. A galaxy, however, is an open population in which civilisations enter, disappear, form selective relationships and occupy a spatially constrained network. This paper develops a continuous-time Gala...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
The Dark Forest hypothesis treats cosmic silence as the strategic consequence of uncertainty, catastrophic vulnerability and incentives for pre-emptive attack. Its central conclusion is usually stated intuitively rather than derived from an explicit incomplete-information game. This paper develops the Bayesian Dark For...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
The Dark Forest hypothesis treats cosmic silence as the strategic consequence of uncertainty, catastrophic vulnerability and incentives for pre-emptive attack. Its central conclusion is usually stated intuitively rather than derived from an explicit incomplete-information game. This paper develops the Bayesian Dark For...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
This paper critically examines the foundational assumptions of rational decision-making models and finds them to be systematically and comprehensively flawed. Through a rigorous analysis of empirical evidence from behavioral economics and neuroscience, we demonstrate that traditional models, such as Expected Utility Th...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
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This paper critically examines the foundational assumptions of rational decision-making models and finds them to be systematically and comprehensively flawed. Through a rigorous analysis of empirical evidence from behavioral economics and neuroscience, we demonstrate that traditional models, such as Expected Utility Th...
Kwan Hong TAN· PhilPapers (PhilPapers Found...· 0 citations
This thesis investigates the complex and often contentious question of whether predictive models are epistemically superior to causal models. It challenges the simplistic dichotomy that often frames this debate, arguing that the epistemic superiority of a model is not an intrinsic property but is contingent upon the sp...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
This thesis investigates the complex and often contentious question of whether predictive models are epistemically superior to causal models. It challenges the simplistic dichotomy that often frames this debate, arguing that the epistemic superiority of a model is not an intrinsic property but is contingent upon the sp...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
This paper develops a novel account of truth grounded in fluctuational epistemology, a framework that situates knowledge within the ontological instability of reality. Traditional theories—correspondence, coherence, pragmatic, and deflationary—assume varying degrees of stability in the relation between propositions and...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
This paper develops a novel account of truth grounded in fluctuational epistemology, a framework that situates knowledge within the ontological instability of reality. Traditional theories—correspondence, coherence, pragmatic, and deflationary—assume varying degrees of stability in the relation between propositions and...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
This paper critically examines the long-standing question of whether scientific explanation depends on narrative coherence. While traditional philosophy of science has largely marginalized the role of narrative, this paper argues that narrative coherence is not merely a rhetorical or pedagogical tool, but a fundamental...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
This paper critically examines the long-standing question of whether scientific explanation depends on narrative coherence. While traditional philosophy of science has largely marginalized the role of narrative, this paper argues that narrative coherence is not merely a rhetorical or pedagogical tool, but a fundamental...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
The COVID-19 pandemic served as a profound stress test for the global scientific enterprise, conducted under unprecedented public scrutiny and political pressure. This paper argues that the pandemic did not simply erode scientific objectivity but rather accelerated a necessary reckoning with its complex nature. Moving...
Kwan Hong TAN· Zenodo (CERN European Organi...· 0 citations
Jennifer Neville did not want to go into computer science—but that’s exactly where she landed. Neville discusses the starts and stops that led to her professional sweet spot and her work identifying “surprising failures” making it hard for AI to handle complexity. The post What AI gets wrong and what failure teaches us appeared first on Microsoft Research.
