Looping Is Not Reliability: State-Bound Evidence and Typed Revision Contracts for Agentic Code Repair
Generate--test--revise loops are common in coding agents, but repetition alone provides no reliability guarantee. We study the gap between finding a correct patch and retaining, verifying, and submitting it. A sealed five-seed study over 30 HumanEval repairs produces 900 three-revision trajectories. Under forced revision, current correctness with current traces falls from 0.820 after one revision to 0.673 after two, although ever-correct rises to 0.847. Two common-state studies use 2,430 branches from identical frozen programs to remove post-treatment risk-set bias. In a prespecified 14B replication, stale traces harm 34/135 correct starts versus 4/135 with current traces, a 22.2-point increase (task-cluster 95\% CI $[8.9,37.0]$, exact Holm $p=0.0337$). A prospective 540-rollout policy eliminates observed correct-start harm but reduces wrong-start repair and fails its joint criterion. Repository experiments over 24 bugs and four coder stacks expose floor effects and component heterogeneity without Holm-significant effects. We therefore separate admission, preservation, grounded certification, competence, and liveness. We derive an evidence-bound typed loop contract and instantiate its mechanically enforceable subset in a reference implementation that binds verifier evidence to exact code states, preserves verified checkpoints, and emits auditable admission receipts. The implementation is an executable specification and conformance artifact, not evidence of improved repair competence or calibrated verifier dependence.