LLM-based forecasting systems have improved on real-world tasks such as financial markets and sports outcomes, largely through stronger search and tool use. Many systems still ask an LLM to read all collected evidence together and produce the final forecast. We call this design Monolithic Prediction. It can obscure how individual evidence items affect the result and collapse uncertainty across competing outcomes. We propose LEAP (Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for Probabilistic forecasting), which reorganizes how collected evidence is used in the prediction stage. LEAP examines each evidence item separately and elicits likelihood parameters that describe its implications for the target. An explicit prior and a deterministic probabilistic model then combine these likelihoods into a posterior distribution. This procedure supports continuous, single-choice, and multi-choice forecasts while preserving reproducible evidence contributions. We build a benchmark covering forecasting, information-seeking, and browsing tasks, and evaluate LEAP on our own agent loop and several agent CLI frameworks. Given the same evidence, LEAP improves most prediction and calibration metrics across models and remains stronger under controlled comparisons of prior access, inference budget, and aggregation.
Yu-Fei Chen, Yi-Ran Zhao, Xiaogang Xu et al.· 0 citations
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) increasingly rely on long chain-of-thought reasoning for complex tasks. However, as reasoning sequences lengthen, models may gradually rely less on visual evidence and more on accumulated textual context, leading to visual forgetting. Existing approaches do not directly constrain how visual evidence is used and maintained along the original reasoning trajectory, leaving long-context visual forgetting insufficiently addressed. To address this issue, we propose Remember-R1, a reinforcement learning framework that mitigates long-context visual forgetting by applying process-level supervision directly on the original reasoning trajectory. Specifically, Remember-R1 introduces rewards that encourage broader coverage of matched visual keywords, stronger persistence of visual dependence in later reasoning steps, and greater focus on question-relevant image regions. Experiments across multiple model scales and diverse multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that Remember-R1 consistently improves reasoning performance. Additional analyses further show that it slows the decline of visual attention during generation, supporting its effectiveness in mitigating long-context visual forgetting.
Jianmin Chen, Jiaqi Tang, Wei Wei et al.· 0 citations
ABE-Ralph is introduced, a reference-anchored auditing framework that represents claims, protocols, required components, baselines, and metrics as structured experimental constraints, guides implementation through an 8-step workflow, and performs quantitative, qualitative, and code-level verification.
Le-Zhi Yu, Xiaogang Xu, Yuhong Zhou et al.· 0 citations
This work investigates LLM-based forecasting agents, meaning systems in which a language model contributes to a scored prediction about a future or currently unobserved target, and organizes architectures into three groups.
Xiaogang Xu, Jiaqi Tang, Jianmin Chen et al.· 0 citations
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