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Wenjin Liu

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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

CHAIN: Calibrated LLM Forecasting via Causal-Temporal Hypergraph Inference

Large language models have achieved significant progress in event forecasting, yet their probability outputs exhibit systematic calibration bias that varies heterogeneously across different domains and question types, undermining the trustworthiness of probabilistic outputs for decision-making under uncertainty. Howeve...

Wen-Jin Liu, Chen-Xi Wang, Yue Lu et al. · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

TIEM: Temporal Integration of Hypergraph Evidence and Skill Memory for Event-Driven Financial Forecasting

TIEM, a timestamp-gated framework with three coordinated components: an Event-Evidence Hypergraph (EEH) for timestamp-filtered multi-tier retrieval; a Case-based Skill Memory (CSM) for source-tagged temporal skills; and Heterogeneous Evidence-Experience Fusion Reasoning (HEFR) for evidence-experience fusion and predict...

Wen-Jin Liu, Shengjie Pang, Chen-Xi Wang et al. · 1 citation

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