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Open access Aug 2026

Frequency-Guided Dynamic Hypergraph Learning for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Accurate traffic flow forecasting requires modeling both stable macroscopic dependencies and abrupt local fluctuations in complex road networks. Existing spatiotemporal forecasting models usually learn spatial structures from raw time-domain traffic signals, where low-frequency trends and high-frequency fluctuations are entangled. Although decomposition-based and frequency-aware methods have shown the benefit of separating heterogeneous traffic components, how frequency decomposition can support reliable high-order topology learning remains less explored. To address this issue, we propose FEDHNet, a Frequency-Guided Dynamic Hypergraph Network for traffic flow forecasting. FEDHNet first performs adaptive spectral decomposition on the hidden representation to obtain low-frequency and complementary high-frequency latent components. The low-frequency branch constructs dynamic hyperedges from the relatively smooth latent representation to model non-local high-order dependencies, while the high-frequency branch employs a lightweight 2D Inception module with GLU-based gated denoising to model rapidly varying latent responses. A low-frequency-anchored residual fusion module then adaptively integrates high-frequency residual information into the low-frequency latent representation for multi-step prediction. Experiments on four public PeMS datasets show that FEDHNet achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and multi-horizon performance, together with favorable computational efficiency compared with recent spatiotemporal forecasting baselines. Further analyses examine the effects of topology-source selection and controlled high-frequency residual modeling, revealing that the benefit of low-frequency hypergraph construction is dataset-dependent.

Wanqiu Li, Bin Wang, Gang Li et al. · 0 citations
Open access Aug 2026

A Multidimensional Framework for Traffic Accident Consequence Prediction: Integrating Multi-Objective Optimization, Explainable AI, and Causal Inference

Road traffic accident consequences are multidimensional, involving fatalities, injuries, and property loss. Existing studies have mainly focused on single outcomes, limiting the understanding of heterogeneous mechanisms across different consequence dimensions. Based on road accident data from Yancheng City in 2022, this study develops an integrated framework combining multi-output prediction, NSGA-II multi-objective optimization, SHAP-based interpretation, LOWESS nonlinear analysis, and DirectLiNGAM causal inference. The results show that the optimized Voting ensemble achieved competitive and comparatively balanced performance across the three accident-consequence dimensions. Road category, traffic control type, junction/road-segment type, and crash-cause category are identified as key influencing factors, with differentiated effects across accident consequences. POI variables exhibit nonlinear and threshold effects, while causal analysis further indicates that road infrastructure and traffic control conditions are positioned upstream in the formation mechanism of accident consequences. This study provides evidence for multidimensional accident-consequence category prediction and differentiated traffic safety management, rather than traditional continuous regression-based modeling.

Yanni Ju, Wanqiu Li, Di Tang et al. · 0 citations

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