Large language models (LLMs) can generate fluent and useful responses but remain prone to hallucinations. We introduce Prompt Embedding Probes (PEP), a white-box method for answer-level hallucination detection from the hidden states of a frozen LLM. PEP extends standard linear probes by augmenting the input with a small number of learnable prompt embeddings. We evaluate PEP on TriviaQA, GSM8K, and MedQA using Qwen3 models at multiple scales. PEP improves hidden-state-based detection over standard linear probes in the main in-distribution setting. We further evaluate PEP for pre-generation prediction, cross-model transfer, and out-of-distribution generalization. PEP remains effective in the pre-generation and cross-model settings, whereas robust cross-dataset transfer remains difficult. These results show that prompt-based adaptation can strengthen hidden-state probing while keeping the backbone frozen and adding only a small number of trainable parameters.
LLM agents deployed for software engineering fail expensively: they act confidently wrong, and bad actions are recognized only after costly execution and retry. We present Speculative Uncertainty (SU), a method that recovers a predictive failure signal for a black-box agent from its output tokens alone, with no access to logits, weights, activations, or repeated sampling. Inverting speculative decoding, a small open-weight draft model scores the agent's already-generated trajectory in a single forward pass. From these speculative cross-likelihoods we extract phase-aware features by separating the reasoning and action spans, and calibrate them against a verifiable objective. SU produces a failure-likelihood score that any downstream policy, such as routing, human intervention, or extra test-time compute, can consume directly. To show the signal is actionable, we instantiate one such policy, a pre-execution veto gate, on software engineering agents Qwen3-Coder-480B and closed-source Claude 3.5 Sonnet, cutting execution error rate by 6-8 percentage points and token cost by 14-19% in deployment, transferring to out-of-distribution benchmarks without retraining, and generalizing across agent models.
Konstantin Grotov, Valentin Malykh· 0 citations
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