Epidemic models often pool air travel, commuting, and other mobility layers into a single weighted network. Pooling keeps the total imported infections into a region but discards the transport mode and route that delivered them, the information a mode-specific intervention needs. We make this precise for directed multilayer flows with heavy-tailed variation. Pooling acts as an asymmetric filter. The magnitude of an extreme importation, its radial tail index, is an exact invariant of sampling and nonnegative aggregation, whereas its composition across layers and routes, the angular part, is reweighted by layer-specific sampling and can be irrecoverably merged. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for recovering route composition, attach a surveillance decision cost to the loss, and show that the first established route need not be the busiest. A controlled metapopulation study calibrates the cost, and two contrasting reconstructions show where it bites. In US pandemic influenza, air adds fitted information beyond commuting, and a layer-resolved ranking targets more air-import burden than a pooled one. In the early Italian COVID-19 wave, commuting improves onset reconstruction while air attribution stays unresolved. Pooling can therefore support total-importation surveillance but cannot in general identify the mode or route behind an importation.
This work extends Preferential attachment (PA) to spatial co-movement through a directed PA model whose out- and in-node weights follow temporally persistent Gaussian-process lognormal fields, and derives a strictly concave inverse that recovers the in-weights from terminal degree proportions.
Networks with nearly identical degree distributions can place their hubs in sharply different neighborhoods. We develop a model diagnostic based on the mean degree of the neighbors of a degree-$k$ vertex. Under rank-one inhomogeneous random graphs, this statistic has degree-invariant centering and $k^{-1/2}$ fluctuations. Under non-rank-one kernels, posterior uncertainty about the root type can instead determine both centering and scale. Under linear preferential attachment, the statistic grows as $(m+\delta)\log k$. We turn these model-specific limits into goodness-of-fit tests for specified sparse-graph nulls and a weighted log-degree slope test for residual hub-neighborhood trends. Simulations evaluate null calibration, degree-distribution misspecification, and power against degree-matched preferential-attachment alternatives. Applications to high-school contact and arXiv coauthorship networks show that the method separates level misspecification from disassortative and positive residual trends. Reddit interaction networks provide a further appendix example.
Qian Hui, Tiandong Wang· 0 citations
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