Circular data, representing angles or directions, are frequently encountered in computer vision, biology, geology, and meteorology. Traditional regression targets the conditional mean, which is often geometrically misleading for circular responses under multimodal, skewed, or asymmetric data structures. To address these limitations, a lightweight deep generative framework, namely ANGLE, is introduced for non-parametric distributional regression on the circle. The full conditional distribution of an angular response, given Euclidean and circular covariates, is learned through a generative map optimized via a generalized circular energy score (GCES) loss. Desirable theoretical properties, including the strict propriety of the loss and the rotational equivariance of the estimators, are established. Furthermore, both pre- and post-additive noise models are accommodated. A unified toolbox is provided for advancing previously underexplored challenges in circular statistics: extrapolation, sufficient dimension reduction, and conditional distribution equality testing. The framework's efficacy is demonstrated through extensive simulations and real-world applications. Specifically, the proposal is utilized for object pose estimation from imagery and wind direction prediction, which are integral to surveillance, autonomous vehicles, and energy systems, respectively. Superior predictive performance and robust uncertainty quantification of the proposed method in these tasks are revealed.
Traffic signal control is a complex sequential decision-making problem requiring real-time adaptation and trade-offs among throughput, delay fairness, signal stability, and emergency vehicle priority. Existing RL methods often fix objectives, ignore dynamic priority changes, and fail to generalize across geometrically similar intersections.We propose SIGMA (Symmetry-aware, Intelligent, Geometric, Multi-objective Adaptive traffic control), an RL framework enhanced with a large language model (LLM) for adaptive objective tuning and orientation-invariant learning. SIGMA converts natural-language emergency commands into priority vectors for a multi-objective actor-critic controller, avoiding manual reward engineering. Rotational augmentation improves transferability across four-way intersections, while offline-to-online learning ensures stable initialization and gradual adaptation to changing traffic.We define reliability properties covering emergency service levels, graceful degradation under LLM failures, and demand sensitivity, validated via bootstrap statistics. Evaluated in SUMO on four Kolkata-based urban intersections against fixed-time, actuated, and DQN controllers, SIGMA reduces average/emergency waiting times and queue lengths, and boosts throughput. Ablation studies confirm robustness to component failures and geometric rotations. Overall, SIGMA offers a reliable, language-guided, multi-objective traffic control system with statistical reliability assurance.
Pratham Payra, B. Jagadish, T. Sen et al.· 0 citations
Accurate dengue forecasting is crucial for public health planning, but remains challenging because incidence series are often short, noisy, non-stationary, nonlinear, and often affected by long-range temporal dependence. Fractional differencing in Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) helps balance non-stationarity and persistence, but its linear structure limits its ability to capture nonlinear dynamics. Deep neural networks can model nonlinear patterns, but usually require large training samples and do not explicitly encode statistical long memory. Echo State Networks (ESNs), a widely used reservoir computing framework, are attractive in this setting because they retain nonlinear recurrent dynamics while training only a simple readout, making them suitable for data-scarce scenarios. However, standard ESNs lack long-term memory from a time-series perspective. This study proposes a long-memory reservoir computing framework that integrates dedicated long-memory and short-memory ESN reservoirs with a ridge-regression readout. We introduce two variants: Fractional ESN (fESN), which incorporates fractional-differencing dynamics into the reservoir to encode long-range dependence directly, and Wavelet ESN (wESN), which extracts stable low-frequency components through wavelet smoothing before modeling them with a memory-aware reservoir. We establish theoretical guarantees for closed-loop reservoir dynamics, showing that standard ESNs induce short-memory processes under mild conditions, whereas the proposed long-memory reservoirs generate polynomially decaying dependence consistent with statistical long memory. Across multiple dengue datasets and forecasting horizons, fESN and wESN outperform statistical and deep learning baselines. Combining conformal prediction with fESN and wESN provides distribution-free calibrated uncertainty intervals.
R. Goswami, Shinjini Paul, P. Ghosh et al.· 0 citations
TREA-Net is proposed, a Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for dengue forecasting under limited data that improves the corresponding backbone in 9 out of 10 settings, with statistically significant gains.
