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Shoki Okubo

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Preprint Sep 2026

Optimal Covariate Adjustment beyond the Average Treatment Effect: Treated-Population and Overlap-Weighted Estimands

Graphical causal inference supplies a complete theory of efficient covariate adjustment for the average treatment effect: one adjustment set, computable from the graph, is optimal under every compatible distribution. We show that this is a property of the average treatment effect's inverse-prevalence weights, not of ca...

Shoki Okubo · 0 citations
Preprint Sep 2026

A Multiverse of Good and Bad Controls: Candidate Causal Graphs for Interpreting Model Robustness Analysis

Model robustness analysis estimates an effect across a multiverse of specifications that pools control sets identifying the declared estimand with sets that condition on mediators or colliders. We propose stating rival assumptions about contested controls as a small set of candidate causal graphs, enumerating the adjus...

Shoki Okubo · 0 citations
Preprint Oct 2026

Identifying Panel Conditioning with Refreshment Samples: Sharp Bounds and Design Assumptions

Refreshment samples are the standard remedy for panel attrition, and the identification results behind them maintain that participation does not change measurement. We characterize what a refreshment sample identifies about panel conditioning, modelled as a deterministic monotone map at reinterview, when attrition is u...

Shoki Okubo · 0 citations
Review Sep 2026

Panel Conditioning in Fixed-Effects Models: Identification and Bias Propagation

Panel conditioning, the causal effect of prior survey participation on responses, can vary with tenure. Under an additive model of cell means in period, entry cohort, and tenure, we characterize which features of the conditioning path a staggered panel identifies on its observed support, and how the unidentified compon...

Shoki Okubo · 0 citations

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