Artificial intelligence-driven financial risk assessment: A deep learning-based credit scoring method for manufacturing enterprises
Financial risk assessment for manufacturing enterprises supports credit-risk screening and early warning. Existing methods often fuse multi-period financial and industry information through concatenation, shared representations, or unrestricted interactions, making it difficult to separate meaningful disturbance–sensitivity correspondences from irrelevant combinations. This study proposes an industry-disturbance-conditioned credit-scoring framework. Its originality lies in explicitly matching external disturbances with firm-level financial sensitivities rather than treating them as unrestricted features. The framework decomposes financial information into levels, intertemporal changes, and accounting divergences; constructs demand, cost, and production sensitivities; and estimates conditioned exposures through a correspondence matrix and conditional gates. A matching-consistency loss constrains disturbance–sensitivity relationships, while dual-path prediction retains exposure-related and firm-specific risk information. Using Moody’s Orbis and Eurostat Short-Term Business Statistics (STS), the method achieves an AUPRC of 0.512 in the full out-of-time test, exceeding TabPFN, the strongest AUPRC baseline, by 1.4 percentage points. Its AUROC is 0.879, and its FNR of 0.276 is lower than 0.289 for HGNN and 0.291 for TabPFN. Among highly sensitive firms, the proposed model achieves an AUPRC of 0.489 and an FNR of 0.288, improving on HGNN by 1.5 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively. Statistical tests, ablation studies, and repeated runs support the matching and prediction mechanisms. Independent calibration further reduces probability error and calibration bias. The framework supports relative risk ranking and distress screening during industry disturbances, although validation across additional databases and disturbance settings remains necessary.