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Conformal prediction can lose coverage when the data distribution changes after deployment. We study adaptation using labeled source data and unlabeled target inputs, allowing both the input distribution and its relationship with outcomes to change. We use Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA), introduced for...
JTS-SCB forms a bounded sensitivity envelope over candidate tilts, but its calibration-only construction does not inherit the exact finite-sample weighted-conformal guarantee, so experiments show that strong plug-in predictive sampling can match the oracle when the shift is well identified, while sensitivity analysis i...
The LSA score is proposed, a nonconformity score derived from a posterior predictive tilting identity that shows that the target predictive is an importance-weighted transformation of the source predictive, which is used to derive a direct correction to the Bayesian score.
This work addresses one of the most pervasive obstacles to applying AI in real-world drug development by addressing conformal prediction framework tailored to label shift by weighting conformal scores using marginal label probability ratios and enhancing the trustworthiness of AI-driven predictions.
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