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Preprint Oct 2026

Probabilistic AI models outperform numerical weather prediction models on record breaking heat extremes

AI weather prediction (AIWP) models have emerged as a key complement to physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and now often outperform them on aggregate skill. Yet, several studies report that physics-based models still forecast extreme events better, in particular record-breaking extremes, based on...

J. Wessel, F. Spuler, Christopher A. T. Ferro et al. · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Statistical Noise and Missing Forcing Limit Estimates of Earth's Feedback from Prescribed Sea-Surface Temperature Simulations

Earth's feedback parameter measures how the Earth system responds to forcing and is inversely proportional to climate sensitivity. Sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns can modulate the value of the feedback parameter. Differences between observed and simulated SSTs have raised the question how the observed SSTs evolu...

G. Gyuleva, R. Knutti, R. Noyelle et al. · 0 citations

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