Ricardo Alonzo Fernández-Salguero

A Path-Dependent Agent-Based Microsimulation of Crime and Violence Reduction Policy Portfolios in Bolivia: Survey Calibration, Adaptive Emulator Ensembles, Global Sensitivity, Tempered MCMC, and Multi-Objective Policy Analysis

This study develops a survey-calibrated, path-dependent agent-based microsimulation for evaluating crime and violence reduction policies in Bolivia. A synthetic population is constructed from the 2025 Household Survey and the fourth-quarter 2025 Continuous Employment Survey using official expansion weights and cross-su...