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Ramin Okhrati

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Preprint Sep 2026

When a High Score Is an Illusion: Certifying Genuine versus Repackaged Forecasting Skill

Ranks depend on the observations used for comparison. Reusing those observations can add association between forecast and outcome rank contrasts even when the evaluated forecast and outcome stay fixed. We characterize assignments that preserve association between specified population-rank contrasts, including forecast...

Pin Ni, Francesca Medda, Ramin Okhrati · 0 citations

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