Subsystem-level short-term load forecasting is important not only for capturing heterogeneous load characteristics, but also for maintaining system reliability and supporting accurate operational decision-making. While many existing studies focus on aggregated system-level forecasting, such approaches may may fail to capture localized load dynamics localized load dynamics in large interconnected systems. This paper proposes a validation-driven, subsystem-aware multi-horizon Stacked LSTM framework for seven power subsystems in DKI Jakarta using two years of 30-minute resolution operational data (August 2023-July 2025). The proposed framework integrates validation-driven sliding window optimization, architecture tuning, and weather feature evaluation within a structured experimental pipeline. A strict chronological split is applied, and final performance is evaluated on a fully unseen operational month (July 2025) to ensure outof-sample generalization. Across the seven subsystems, the optimized models achieve test MAPE values ranging from 3.34% to 9.24%, demonstrating reliable forecasting performance under heterogeneous load dynamics. Weather feature evaluation revealed subsystem-dependent responses. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test indicates no statistically significant difference between the Baseline and All-Weather configurations p-value 0.43, despite subsystem-dependent responses to meteorological variables. The results indicate that subsystemspecific parameter configurations, determined through validation, are essential for accurate subsystem-level short-term load forecasting in heterogeneous smart grid systems, while weather information should be incorporated selectively according to subsystem characteristics.
Hadeta Premiesyani, R. S. Wibowo, Suwito· International Seminar on Int...· 0 citations
Single-phase-to-ground faults are the most common disturbances in 70 kV transmission systems and are generally temporary. However, the continued use of Three-Pole Auto-Reclosing (TPAR) causes all phases to be disconnected even when only one phase is affected, which reduces system reliability and continuity of supply. This study evaluates the application of Single-Pole Auto-Reclosing (SPAR) in a 70 kV transmission network employing a High Resistance Grounding (HRG) scheme through comprehensive simulations that consider Critical Clearing Time (CCT), power surge characteristics, and secondary arc behavior under various operating conditions. The results demonstrate that SPAR can improve system recovery and maintain transient stability during temporary faults. Nevertheless, high overvoltage observed in certain transmission lines produces significant generator oscillations, which limits the applicability of SPAR in those sections. The results show that CCT values ranged from 224 ms to more than 5 s depending on fault location, indicating sufficient transient stability margins. Secondary arc currents were observed in the range of 1.2–1.77 A, significantly below the typical extinction threshold of 20 A, suggesting a high probability of successful arc extinction. However, power surge analysis revealed critical limitations leading to significant generator oscillations. As a result, SPAR was found to be feasible for only 1 out of 5 transmission lines, while the remaining lines were restricted due to excessive transient response. In addition, the performance of SPAR is strongly influenced by the successful extinction of secondary arcs and proper coordination of Directional Ground Relay (DGR), where the relay acts as a comparator to distinguish between unbalanced load conditions and actual ground faults. Therefore, the implementation of SPAR in HRG-based 70 kV systems must be carried out selectively by considering system stability, overvoltage limits, and protection coordination to ensure reliable and secure operation.
Mochamad Ardi Arsuwenda, R. S. Wibowo, Mochammad Sahal· International Seminar on Int...· 0 citations
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