R. Mayasari

Machine Learning-Based Volatility Forecasting and Systemic Risk Dynamics in Indonesian State-Owned Banks

This study evaluates volatility forecasts and systemic-risk indicators for four Indonesian state-owned banks (BBRI, BBTN, BMRI, and BBNI) from January 2010 to December 2025. Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB) models use information available at each forecast origin and are tuned by expanding-window validatio...