Machine-learning MRI stratification of genetic frontotemporal dementia for clinical trial enrichment
BACKGROUND Genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) shows large differences in symptom profiles, brain atrophy patterns, and progression rate, making clinical trials difficult to design and power. There is a need for biomarkers that can model disease progression, identify biologically distinct groups, and support efficient trial enrichment. METHODS We applied contrastive trajectory inference (cTI), a machine-learning method, to structural MRI, white matter hyperintensity, and demographic data from 736 participants in the GENFI cohort, including non-carriers and carriers of C9orf72, GRN, or MAPT mutations. cTI produced an individual “genetic FTD progression score” (0–1) and grouped mutation carriers into data-driven subtypes. We tested construct validity using correlations between progression score and cognitive/functional measures, examined subtype differences in brain–behavior coupling, plasma neurofilament light (NfL), and longitudinal decline, and compared cTI-based trial enrichment against age, cortical thickness and NfL using analytic and simulation-based power analyses. RESULTS Genetic FTD progression scores correlated strongly with global dementia severity and multiple cognitive domains (all p < 0.001), confirming robust clinical scoring. Two mutation-carrier subtypes emerged: a Progressive Track (Subtype 2) with strong associations between progression score and cognitive/functional impairment, rising NfL, and faster longitudinal decline; and a Dissociated Track (Subtype 3) with comparable levels of structural variation but weak or absent clinical and NfL changes, suggesting relative biological stability. Baseline subtype membership added prognostic value for future decline in processing speed and language beyond baseline severity. Notably, for C9orf72 and GRN, cTI-informed enrichment reduced required recruited sample size per arm by about 61–75% compared with unenriched designs, and outperformed enrichment using age, cortical thickness or NfL in both analytic and simulation-based power analyses. CONCLUSIONS Machine-learning stratification of genetic FTD reveals a progressive and a dissociated disease track and provides individualized progression scores that closely track clinical status. cTI progression scores offer a powerful tool for trial enrichment, enabling smaller, more efficient prevention and early-intervention trials than conventional MRI or NfL markers alone.