Paytsar Muradyan

Beyond Track and Intensity: Scale-Dependent Diagnostics of a Tropical Cyclone Forecast by a Probabilistic AI Foundation Model, AERIS

AI weather prediction models now rival physics-based systems on standard forecast scores, but whether their forecasts are physically consistent across scales remains unclear. We assess Argonne's Earth system foundation model (AERIS), a generative diffusion transformer, using Hurricane Laura (2020). Decomposing the stor...