Author

N. Kagan

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Jul 2026

When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are ba...

Anri Gu, N. Kagan, Alec Sun et al. · arXiv.org · 0 citations