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Micah Goldblum

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#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

LLM Evaluation is a Forecasting Problem

Standard procedure in machine learning is to randomly split train and test data, emulating IID draws from one underlying data distribution. In practice, models are trained on past data and deployed in the future, which may come from distinct distributions. In this paper, we find that web text is indeed highly non-stati...

R. Thomas, Adam Block, Micah Goldblum · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

Decoupling Exploration from Optimization in RLVR

Modern language models undergo reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) on top of already-trained checkpoints. A key promise of RLVR is the discovery of new reasoning strategies. In principle, a model can sample novel ideas absent from its prior training data. In practice, however, augmenting RLVR with str...

Saif Punjwani, Micah Goldblum · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Review Apr 2026

LiveMathematicianBench: A Live Benchmark for Research-Level Mathematical Reasoning with Proof Sketches

LiveMathematicianBench is presented, a dynamic multiple-choice benchmark for research-level mathematical reasoning built from recent arXiv papers published after model training cutoffs, and introduces a thirteen-category logical taxonomy of theorem types, enabling fine-grained evaluation across reasoning forms.

Lin-Yang He, Qi-Yao Yu, Han-Ze Dong et al. · 1 citation · ⚡1
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Pinocchio: Fast Uncertainty Estimates for Black-Box Language Models

Pinocchio is introduced, an external calibrator that estimates the correctness of responses from black-box API models that needs only a single forward pass to generate an uncertainty estimate and requires no access to the target model's logits, weights, or internal states.

K. D. Hayes, Arka Pal, Hao-Song Zhang et al. · 1 citation
Preprint Jul 2026

Understanding Reasoning from Pretraining to Post-Training

A quantitative account of the pretraining-to-RL interface and a controlled testbed for studying the science of reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline is provided.

Jingyan Shen, Ang Li, Salman Rahman et al. · 0 citations

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