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Matthew L. Scullin

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Preprint Aug 2026

Equity Strategy Backtesting: Luck or Edge? The MinervaScore as a Statistical Robustness Grade

Backtests of trading strategies are often selected after many parameter trials. A strong historical result can therefore reflect search luck rather than a persistent signal. Standard summaries such as return, Sharpe ratio, and drawdown do not record how many candidates were tried, whether the selected rule survives out...

Maria Laura Santoni, Vincent Jouanne, Matthew L. Scullin · 2 citations

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