Leveraged event positions combine a repayable loan with an outcome claim that may become non-tradable before oracle payout is final. This paper specifies Axient, a physically backed margin layer for binary event markets that separates leverage maturity from claim maturity and makes the hard-flat decision under explicit execution uncertainty. The model distinguishes quoted book proceeds, matched proceeds, settled proceeds, and redemption. At decision time, the protocol selects the smallest sale whose lower settled-proceeds envelope covers an upper bound on debt at the settlement horizon plus a buffer. We prove robust ex-ante debt clearing, pathwise debt-extinguishment and debt-free-finality invariants, maximal residual spot exposure, payout-vector and dispute-duration invariance of lender principal after debt extinction, and an impossibility boundary when execution, signer control, settlement, or market closure leave the registered operating set. We also derive a book-dependent leverage envelope, aggregate hard-flat capacity without double-counting shared liquidity, and scenario-conditional reserve bounds. A deterministic verifier covers step books, partial fills, settlement delay, adversarial book transformations, shared-book liquidation, reserve allocation, zero liquidity, and multiple payout vectors. The operating and stress sets are author-specified; empirical calibration is separate. The contribution is a conditional mechanism-design result and reference-implementation boundary, not a production-safety claim.
A physically backed leveraged event position requires real credit: if collateral C receives leverage L, the protocol supplies (L-1)C and uses the combined amount to acquire recognized event exposure. This paper develops a venue-agnostic on-chain credit architecture for that capital layer and an endogenous model of its capital market. It separates traders, Senior Credit LPs, market makers, liquidators, and Liquidation Backstop Providers; formalizes pool and debt shares, utilization- and risk-sensitive interest, collateral-locked position accounts, venue capabilities, market-maker commitments, withdrawal queues, isolated pools, non-redeemable reserves, and a deterministic loss waterfall; and models endogenous provider participation, leverage demand, liquidity withdrawal, liquidator entry, reserve replenishment, runs, and common-factor contagion. Formal results establish balanced real- and integer-unit accounting, settlement-confirmed debt priority, trader residual ownership, idempotent partial settlement, non-dilutive share issuance, junior-before-Senior impairment, loss-participating withdrawal queues, utilization-equilibrium conditions, and loss-allocation and contagion bounds. The release preserves 28 exact fixtures and 31,082 deterministic checks and adds fixed-seed agent-based experiments with 70,207,488 scalar invariant evaluations and zero failures. The experiments show that layered protection reduces but does not eliminate Senior loss, that 5x leverage materially increases capital pressure, and that market-maker capacity can raise aggregate shortfall if admission expands too quickly. Results are synthetic mechanism comparisons under author-specified behavior, not forecasts of APY, defaults, venue liquidity, or production safety.
M. Nechepurenko· 0 citations
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