Author

M. Giordano

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Preprint Aug 2026

Posterior contraction rates in Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families

We study posterior contraction in positive-order Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families. We embed the natural parameter in a Hilbert scale and model it via a Gaussian series prior expanded in the eigenbasis generating the scale. Under a two-sided link condition on...

Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro, M. Giordano · 0 citations

Preprint Sep 2026

Asymptotics and finite sample bounds for prediction and smoothing in Wright-Fisher hidden Markov models

We study prediction and smoothing in hidden Markov models with a latent signal given by a multi-type Wright-Fisher diffusion and discrete-time categorical observations, motivated by repeated-sampling time-series settings, including temporally binned ancient-DNA data, in which noisy frequency counts are recorded at fini...

Luigi M. Malgieri, F. Ascolani, M. Giordano et al. · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Posterior contraction rates in Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families

We study posterior contraction in positive-order Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families. We embed the natural parameter in a Hilbert scale and model it via a standard Gaussian series prior expanded in the eigenbasis generating the scale. Under a two-sided link con...

Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro, M. Giordano · 0 citations