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Lukas A. Sosna

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Preprint Aug 2026

The Mass-Size Plane Does Not Resolve the Identifiability Limit of the Radial Acceleration Relation

We present a computational audit of the identifiability limits for structural corrections to the Radial Acceleration Relation (RAR) using a canonical subset of the SPARC database (N = 126). Rather than proposing a new dynamical law, we establish the observational conditions under which such a law would be mathematically recoverable. We resolve three methodological controls that heavily influence RAR interpretations. First, we isolate a -0.39 dex residual offset between the eight galaxies in the lowest-quality observational tier (Q = 3, mean -0.433 dex) and the remaining 118 (mean -0.040 dex). Of five predictions that beam smearing must satisfy, four fail: the radial profile plateaus at -0.331 +/- 0.028 dex rather than decaying to zero, and the offset does not scale with the number of resolution elements across a curve. Beam smearing is disfavoured as the primary driver, though the offset remains a data-quality signature rather than a physical one -- Q = 3 in SPARC flags major asymmetries and strong non-circular motions, conditions under which a rotation curve does not trace the equilibrium potential. Second, we decouple the architectural limits of the dataset into three independently measured quantities -- the no-model point scatter (sigma_M0 = 0.1860 dex), the residual floor after free per-galaxy intercepts (sigma_M3 = 0.1058 dex), and the propagated analytic error floor -- together with the absorbable budget sqrt(sigma_M0^2 - sigma_M3^2) = 0.1530 dex derived from the first two. Finally, we provide an 8-cell protocol grid to reconcile Leave-One-Out (LOO) Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) ratios. We demonstrate that reported structural-dynamical couplings must be evaluated with strict adherence to residual definitions (median vs. mean, signed vs. absolute) and baseline denominators to avoid adopting labeling artifacts as new physics.

Lukas A. Sosna · 0 citations
Review Aug 2026

An Identifiability Audit of One-Parameter Structural Corrections to the Radial Acceleration Relation in SPARC

We ask whether any one-parameter structural correction to the radial acceleration relation (RAR) can be uniquely recovered from SPARC rotation curves, and answer with an identifiability audit: each candidate is benchmarked against per-galaxy nuisance freedom, with predictive scoring against mass-only and data-quality baselines. In the full sample (N = 126) the answer is no: a hybrid compactness term improves the fit, but zero-point freedom absorbs the gain, and in cross-validation the model fails to out-predict a mass-only baseline and loses to a quality-flag baseline. One regime retains structural information: in gas-dominated, low-acceleration disks -- where MOND's strict locality and $\Lambda$CDM feedback models diverge most sharply -- the RAR residual correlates with compactness ($r=0.46$, $p=1.3\times10^{-4}$), remains significant under hierarchical partial pooling ($\beta=0.23$, $p=1.7\times10^{-5}$; N = 63), and survives canonical joint control for quality, sampling, mass, inclination error, and first-order pressure support ($r=0.30$, $p=0.02$). All significant results pass a Benjamini-Hochberg correction over the declared 27-test family. Three limits temper that survival: it is not significant under rank-based control over the widest proxy set; it resides in faint dwarfs independent surveys do not reach; and after mass control it is shared across the mass-size manifold. Pressure support brackets the interpretation -- isotropic drift correction absorbs a quarter of the amplitude, while a Jeans treatment overcorrects resolved cases -- leaving the physical origin undetermined. The audit's product is the extraction limit: claimed corrections must clear the 0.106 dex per-galaxy nuisance floor, a mass-only baseline, and data-quality stratification.

Lukas A. Sosna · 0 citations

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