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Lucas J. Howard

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Preprint Aug 2026

Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?

A diffusion model for probabilistic subseasonal coastal sea level forecasts at eight US East Coast tide gauge stations isTrain a diffusion model for probabilistic subseasonal coastal sea level forecasts, and finds that marginal and joint forecast quality decouple.

Lucas J. Howard, Elizabeth A. Barnes · 1 citation

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