Reaction Synchronization and Civilizational Reorganization -Why Do Synchronization Structures Form, Expand, Persist, and Reorganize?
This paper develops a dynamic framework for analyzing civilizational reorganization by extending the theory of reaction synchronization along a temporal axis. Rather than treating civilizations as unified entities that rise, decline, and replace one another, it conceptualizes civilization as an overlapping assemblage of synchronization structures that sustain life connections, meaning connections, and shared predictability over time. The framework examines how synchronization structures form, expand, persist, destabilize, and reorganize. Their expansion is not attributed to an inherent tendency or agency of the structure itself. Instead, synchronization may spread through diffusion, adoption, incorporation, institutional scaling, coercion, and interoperability when conditions such as reproducibility, translatability, media infrastructure, resources, authority, practical benefits, meaningful justification, and compatibility with existing local synchronization structures are present. A central mechanism is predictive synchronization: the partial convergence of expectations about future reactions, the continuity of life and meaning connections, the viability of alternative structures, and the possibility of institutional change. Changes in these expectations may alter present behavior even before existing institutions cease to function. However, declining confidence in an existing order does not by itself produce reorganization. Reorganization synchronization becomes possible when expectations that alternative connections, institutions, boundaries, roles, and resource arrangements are viable become partially shared. The paper also introduces synchronization residue to describe elements of past synchronization structures—such as language, rituals, customs, legal forms, infrastructure, roles, memories, narratives, and reaction tendencies—that persist after their former institutional centrality has weakened. Such residues may become materials for later reorganization when they are reinterpreted and reconnected to contemporary reaction chains. Finally, the paper considers how contemporary environments alter these dynamics through the rapid and large-scale visibility of reactions and predictions and through the participation of non-human reactive entities, including AI systems and algorithmic systems, in observing, selecting, generating, and redistributing reactions. The framework is not proposed as a deterministic cycle of civilizations or a monocausal theory of historical change. Rather, it provides an analytical model for examining how heterogeneous changes in institutions, resources, technologies, power, ideas, and contingent events transform collective connections and expectations, thereby contributing to the persistence, fragmentation, or reorganization of synchronization structures.