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J. Neumann

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Open access Aug 2026

Circulating biomarkers and polygenic scores for cardiovascular risk prediction in healthy older adults: differential and complementary contributions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Atherothrombotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction in older adults remains suboptimal. The relative contributions of circulating protein biomarkers and polygenic scores (PGS) are uncertain. METHODS In 10,433 older individuals aged ≥70 years without prior CVD events, we evaluated traditional risk factors alongside three circulating biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, hsCRP; N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, NT proBNP; and high-sensitivity troponin I, hsTnI), and two PGSs (coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke) for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Associations were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Model performance was evaluated using the C-index, calibration, and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI). RESULTS Over a median follow-up of 4.5 years (interquartile range 3.4-5.5), 359 MACE occurred. Each biomarker and both PGSs were independently associated with MACE, with NT-proBNP showing the strongest association (adjusted HR per SD 1.50, 95% CI 1.36-1.65). Compared with the base clinical model, the addition of the three circulating biomarkers (hsCRP, NT-proBNP, and hsTnI) resulted in a greater improvement in discrimination than the addition of the two PGSs (ΔC-index +0.041 vs. +0.016). The fully combined model achieved the highest discrimination (C-index 0.734) with good calibration. Circulating biomarkers improved reclassification primarily through correct identification of non-cases (NRI 0.34), whereas PGSs contributed relatively more to identification of cases (NRI 0.31). CONCLUSIONS In older adults, circulating biomarkers and PGSs provide cumulative information for CVD risk prediction, contributing differently to discrimination and risk reclassification. Integrating biomarkers and genetic risk may improve CVD risk prediction in older people beyond traditional risk factors.

Cheng-Long Yu, C. Tran, J. Neumann et al. · 0 citations
Open access Jul 2026

Diet quality and depressive symptoms in older adults, assessing the effect modification by genetic predisposition and low-grade inflammation: a target trial emulation.

Longitudinal studies have shown an association between diet quality and depression. However, reverse causality, unmeasured confounding, and selection bias remained important limitations. We aim to examine the relationship between diet quality and depression in older adults while addressing these issues and explore modification role of genetic predisposition to depression and low-grade inflammation. We emulated a target trial of dietary interventions using data from the ASPREE cohort. An ultra-processed food (UPF) index and an anti-inflammatory diet measure were extracted from a food frequency questionnaire to quantify diet quality. Depressive symptoms were assessed annually with a Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression 10-item score of ≥8. A polygenic score was derived using the latest Psychiatric Genomics Consortium data for major depression. Systemic inflammation was assessed using circulating high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Inverse probability treatment weighting was applied to balance measured confounders. The effects of diet quality on depressive symptoms were estimated using generalised estimating equations. A total of 7220 participants (52.7% female), aged 70+ years, were followed for a median of 5.7 years. High UPF consumption was associated with a higher risk of depressive symptoms (RR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.21), while an anti-inflammatory diet was associated with lower depressive symptoms (RR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.86-1.00). Genetic predisposition or low-grade inflammation did not modify the observed associations. Higher diet quality is associated with a lower risk of depressive symptoms, independent of genetic predisposition or low-grade inflammation, which may support dietary interventions as a modifiable lifestyle strategy for mental health promotion and prevention in older adults.

B. Mengist, Najmeh Davoodian, M. Lotfaliany et al. · 0 citations

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